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Bumping along what may be the bottom Home sales statistics for Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope July 2009 Want some good news? The number of homes sold on the Eastern Shore increased 24 percent in the 2nd quarter compared with the 1st quarter. Priced right for todays market, homes will sell. Looking at month-by-month sales, it seems that we are bumping along what I hope is the bottom. Between Spanish Fort and Point Clear, 207 homes sold this past quarter, compared to 157 sales in the 1st quarter of 2009 and 227 sales this time last year. The average sales price was $247,779 this quarter, up from of $223,575 in the first quarter, but down from $301,631 this time last year. Foreclosures (15) and short sales (2), were among this quarters sales. And judging by public records listings, there will continue to be distressed properties reaching the market. The average time it took to sell a home this quarter was 198 days. Although the average sale prices improved since the 1st quarter, that reflects what is selling. Make no mistake: Prices are falling. But keep this next fact in mind when you look at these numbers: The upper-end market, over $300,000, remains very slow and represented only about 25% of this quarters sales. Yet almost half of all homes for sale on the Eastern Shore are priced at $300,000 or more. On to the stats: Fairhope: 70 homes sold, up from 59 in the 1st quarter, and not so far off from the 76 that sold this time last year. Average sales price was $284,033, up from $242,771 in the 1st quarter. This time last year the average sale price was $415,410. That is not a typo. That was in fact the markets peak. The Fairhope market has been hard hit in a multitude of ways: ■ It was always pricey compared to other areas ■ The high-priced waterfront market has been struggling for several years, particularly with the scarcity and pricing of home owners insurance. ■ The retiree market has been hit as hard as many retirees portfolios ■Traffic and commute times to Interstate 10 have increased ■ Fairhope has prided itself for resisting major retailers, so buyers who want to be close to major retail and all the restaurants and cinemas that go with it, choose other communities. There are 598 houses on the market in Fairhope. Daphne/Montrose: 73 homes sold, a healthy increase from the 47 last quarter and the 65 that sold this time last year. Average sales price was $243,600, up from $237,409 in the first quarter. Average sales price was $311,085 this time last year. It took on average 200 days to sell. There are 375 homes on the market here. Lake Forest: 25 houses sold here, virtually unchanged from the 24 in the 1st quarter, but down from the 40 that sold this time last year. Average sale price was $145,680, up slightly from $140,756 in the 1st quarter, but down from $165,105 this time last year. It took 152 days to sell on average. 129 homes are for sale Spanish Fort: 39 homes sold, up from 27 in the 1st quarter and almost equal to the 40 sold this time last year. Average sale price was $255,977, up from $231,161 in the 1st quarter, but down from $268,372 in the 2nd quarter of 2008. Average time it took to sell: 135 days. There are 145 houses on the market.
February 2009 home sales in Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope, Alabama February home sales on the Eastern Shore ticked up to 54 houses closed compared with 40 homes sold in Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope and Point Clear in January. For a February, it wasnt a bad month compared to the fall of 08. It was, however, not as good as February 2008 when 64 homes sold. A couple of things stand out from analyzing data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service. Only 6 homes on the Eastern Shore over $400,000 have gone under contract since the first of the year. Pending sales registered a slight decline with 92 homes under contract as of March 4, 2009, compared with 102 under contract a month ago. As expected in our early spring, inventory is rising with 1,129 homes on the market in this area, an increase of 50 listings over last month. Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in February, 2009: Total houses for sale: 1,129 Spanish Fort: 127 Daphne: 352 Fairhope: 527 Lake Forest: 123 Pending sales Total: 92 Spanish Fort: 19 Daphne: 30 Fairhope: 33 Lake Forest: 10 Closed sales for February 2009 Total: 54 Average sales price: $208,019, down from $228,944 in January 2009 Median sales price: $179,950, down from $216,800 in December List to sale percentage: 94.69% Spanish Fort: 12, where the highest selling price was $576,000 Daphne: 12, where the highest selling price was $375,000 Fairhope: 19, where the top seller was $534,600 Lake Forest: 11, where the highest selling price was $192,500 Did we hit bottom in November, 2008? Time will tell Plain English by Janet English January, 2009 2008? Whew! Glad thats over. 2009? At least we know what were dealing with. Heres a backward look on a sorry year in real estate, and a forward look in which I will stick my neck out. 2008: n Twenty-four percent fewer homes sold than in 2007 from Spanish Fort to Point Clear. n Foreclosures, short sales and distress sales (essentially pre-foreclosures) captured buyers attention. n On the Eastern Shore, the average sales price was down only 1% from the previous year and the median sales price was down just 6%. But it didnt feel that way, and a late-year statistic proved the point: In December, sellers took on average 8% off the list price to move their homes. 2009: n Interest rates have already dropped after the Fed unveiled a plan to buy $500 billion in mortgage securities and debt. For just a few hours one day in December, the rate hit 4.25%. The drop has triggered a new refinancing boom and hopefully will spill over into home sales. n Business Week magazine predicts the market has hit bottom, but prices will remain weak through the end of 2009. It cites the large inventory of houses as a negative and predicts potential sellers who have been sitting on the fence will put their homes on the market at the first sign of improvement, leading to more inventory. Locally, November was the worst month for sales (only 47 on the Eastern Shore), mirroring sales the month after the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. I agree and hope weve hit bottom in terms of the number of sales. n Theres a lot of pent-up demand. Marriage, divorce, new babies, retirement: Think about everyone who had a housing need that they didnt act on in 2008. This year may be their year. n Finally, a couple of opinions: Houses with great prices, and great houses, will sell, as always. If youre considering buying up or down, why wait? You may get less for your present house, but you will probably pay less for your new one, and the interest rate will be very attractive. On to the stats: Fourth quarter sales on the Eastern Shore registered a yearly low. Only 162 sold, compared with 265 in the third quarter. Average sales price was $260,838, with sellers taking on average 6% off the list price to sell. Average days on market were 162. For the year, 833 homes sold, compared to 1,092 in 2007. Average sales price declined slightly from $292,091 to $287,736. The time it took to sell lengthened from 144 days in 2007 to 166 days in 2008. (Note: Both figures were skewed by houses being re-listed.) Fairhope: 57 homes sold in the 4th quarter, compared with 68 during the same time in 2007. Average price was $304,455, compared with $356,772 the previous year. Average time to sell rose from 157 days to 172 days. For the year, 293 homes sold, compared with 400 sales in 2007. Average prices actually rose from $339,028 in 2007 to $353,765. Days on market rose from 162 to 197. Daphne/Montrose: 69 homes sold in the 4th quarter, compared with 58 in the 4th quarter of 2007. Average sales price declined to $248,922, from $258,273 at the same time in 2007. Days on market rose from 153 to 166. During all of 2008, 321 homes sold, compared with 394 in 2007. Average sales price was $271,599, down from $295,486 for all of 2007. Days on market stretched from 141 to 150. Lake Forest: 15 homes sold, compared with 25 sales in the 4th quarter of 2007. Average sales price dropped from $162,768 to $139,600. Days on market lengthened from 101 days to 124 days. For the whole of the year, 99 homes sold, compared with 114 in 2007. Average prices dropped from $170,930 to $157,355 in 2008. Days on market rose from 110 to 159. Spanish Fort: 21 homes sold in the 4th quarter, compared with 33 during the last quarter of 2007. Average sales price dropped from $304,803 to $268,198 in 2008. The time it took to sell was virtually unchanged at about 130 days. In 2008, 120 homes sold vs. 145 in 2007. Average sales price dropped from $281,232 to $277,245. The days on market stretched from 123 days to 140 days. Inventory: As of Jan. 8, there were 1,082 homes on the market on the Eastern Shore.■ Spanish Fort: 118 ■ Daphne/Montrose: 328 ■ Fairhope: 502 ■ Lake Forest: 134. If you have specific questions about your homes value, feel free to call or email. Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope home sales peaked in July then dwindled. Plain English by Janet English October, 2008 What's happening in the big wide world of real estate and finance these days? The answer is way above my pay grade. Locally, I can tell you it's a good time to buy. Lenders have money, the interest rate is very good and there are plenty of houses for sale. If I could figure out anything more for our future, George Bush would be painting my toenails while Larry King interviews me in my living room. Here's what did happen in the last quarter before the collective Freak Out over The Bailout, The Market and The Election. Price corrections in the Eastern Shore housing market produced mixed news in the 3rd quarter: The number of homes sold rose over the previous quarter, but sellers took on average 5% off their list prices to make the deals happen. Buyers gravitated to foreclosures, which represented 6% of sales, and to new construction, which accounted for 35% of sales. Yet of the 1,229 homes on the market from Spanish Fort to Point Clear, foreclosures make up only 2% of the listings, and new construction, 25%. July was the hot month, with sales decelerating in August and September. Still, 265 homes sold last quarter compared with 227 sales from April through June. Average sales price fell slightly from $308,019 in the 2nd quarter to $298,974 in the 3rd quarter. The number of homes currently under contract has fallen from around 110 for the last couple of months to 88, which reflects the lack of activity in the last few weeks. This is a no-nonsense market: The houses in the best shape at the very best price are the ones that are selling. Let's break it down: Fairhope/Point Clear: 98 homes sold, up from 76 in the 2nd quarter and but down from the 105 that sold in the 3rd quarter of 2007. Average sales price was $359,262, down from $415,410 in the previous quarter. On average, sellers took on average 6% off the list price and the sales time stood at 200 days. There are 593 homes for sale. Daphne/Montrose: 105 homes sold, up almost 40% from 65 sales in the 2nd quarter of this year, but down from 113 in the 3rd quarter of 2007. Average sales price was $289,832, down from $311,085 in the 2nd quarter of this year. Average selling time was 150 days. There are 374 homes for sale here. Lake Forest: 28 homes sold, down from 36 in the previous quarter, and 38 this time a year ago. Average sales price dropped from $165,105 in the 2nd quarter to $153,965. Average days on market 144. There are 129 homes for sale here, a number reminiscent of the late 90s. Spanish Fort: 34 homes sold, down from 40 homes in the 2nd quarter and barely down from the 35 that sold in the 3rd quarter of '07. Average sales price was $272,853, up from $268,372 in the 2nd quarter. Sellers took on average 4% less than list price. Average days on market: 169. There are 127 homes on the market. here, a new high. For more information about real estate in Daphne, Spanish Fort, and Fairhope, please contact Janet English, RE/Max By The Bay, 251 591-2411 Plain English by Janet English April, 2008 What a strange trip this has been. All of us piled up in this stationwagon taking in the sights at CNN and the morning news. Oh look, itfs an up day on Wall Street. Uh oh, itfs down again. There, over on the left c itfs another report of unemployment rising. Stop, put the brakes on. The Fed has spoken and bailed out Bear Stearns! Everyone in the car keeps asking if wefre there yet. Is this bottom? It's times like these that make me wish I could present these figures in a grid format and let you take from them what you will. But why break with tradition? So herefs my view of whatfs happening in this real estate market. Sales in the first quarter of 2008 are down 33% compared to the first quarter of 2007. Last year, I could point to some 180 houses under contract as a hopeful sign. Right now, only 94 are waiting to close. The average sales price for this past quarter was $277,677, compared to $275,000 this time last year. To compare further, the average sales price in all of 2007 was $292,091. There were 452 price changes on homes for sale on Eastern Shore in the last quarter. In this past quarter, sellers received on average almost 96% of their asking price. Showings are up and that's encouraging. But many of these buyers have homes to sell elsewhere so theyfre not making offers. Foreclosures represent only about 1% of whatfs for sale on the Eastern Shore. These homes are often not the good deals youfd hope them to be If you can buy, itfs a good time to do so. I know it sounds used-car- salesman-like. But the interest rate is good and therefs plenty to choose from and some really good deals out there. FHA loan limits in Baldwin County have been raised to $285,000. This is good news because FHA loans require only 3% down and have a little looser credit requirements. Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore: ►Fairhope: This is the toughest market on the Eastern Shore, with 611 houses for sale. In the first quarter, 61 homes sold with an average sales price of $312,432, compared to 87 sales with an average sales price of $331,707 this time last year. Homeowners on average took 6% off the list price. It took on average 6 full months to sell. ►Daphne/Montrose: 67 homes sold, compared to 97 homes this time last year. Average sales price was $258,690, down from $272,256. Average days on market: 145 this quarter compared to 127 during the 1st quarter of 2007. List- to- sale percentage: 97.01%. There are 360 homes on the market. ►Lake Forest: Only 20 homes sold, down from 44 this time last year. Average sales price dropped from $170,304 to $161,194. List- to-sale percentage: 97.27%. Market time increased from 122 days to 158 days. There are 111 homes on the market. ►Spanish Fort: 23 homes sold, down from 28 in the 1st quarter of 2007. Average sales price rose from $282,572 to $307,409. List-to-sale percentage: 94.75. It took 142 days to sell this quarter, up from 132 days. There are 116 homes on the market. This is a tough market update to write. What to say? What to say? Too much information to digest and impart. Maybe that's the problem ... there's simply too much information about the national housing market, the global financial market, the subprime, the Fed, the fraud, the foreclosures, to clearly see what's happening. And it's not just me. This information binge clearly is spinning the heads of would-be buyers and sellers. It's strange because the bad news is offset by the good. For all the declines in the number of homes sold, there is not yet an overall decline in average sales price on the Eastern Shore. For all the lower offers that buyers are making, there are still sellers who have realized great appreciation if they've owned their home for at least three years. For every Realtor moonlighting at the mall during Christmas, there are a number who have had one of their best years - me included. So if you want my predictions, for 2008, visit my site: JanetEnglish.com and look for Market Predictions 2008, which will be posted for a limited time (until I decide that I look a genius or fool, depending upon whether those predictions pan out.) On to the Eastern Shore numbers: The number of homes sold in 2007 fell by 18.5% from 2006, but the average sales price rose from $289,935 in 2006 to $292,091. In 2006, 1,309 homes sold compared with 1,092 in 2007. The average time it took to sell a home was 144 days, but this stat was skewed by homes that were re-listed after having been on the market for as long as 6 months. (In fact, current statistics show that it may take more than 10 months to sell a home on the Eastern Shore. Mind you, this is a broad measure and not specific to location or price range.) As the market continued to slow in the 4th quarter of 2007, 184 homes sold, down from 248 during the same period in 2006. Average sales price did fall here, from $299,328 in 2006 to $290,044 in 2007. Spanish Fort: 33 homes sold in the 4th quarter vs. 30 homes in the last quarter of 2006. Average sales price went from $246,774 to $304,803. Days on market stood at 132. For the year, 145 homes sold with an average price of $281,232; in 2006, 173 homes sold at an average of $291,773. It took on average 123 days to sell. There are 103 homes on the market. Daphne: 58 homes sold in the 4th quarter vs. 107 homes in the 4th quarter of 2006. Average sale price was $258,273, compared with $301,615 in 2006. For the year, 394 homes sold here with an average price of $295,486, while in 2006, 515 homes sold with an average price of $286,259. Average days on market stood at 141, and there are 335 homes on the market here. Lake Forest: 25 homes sold in the 4th quarter with an average price of $162,768, compared with 27 sales in 2006 with an average price of $165,887. It took on average 101 days to sell. During 2007, 153 homes sold here with an average price of $170,930. Days on market stood at 110, and there are 96 homes on the market. Fairhope: 68 homes sold here, down from 84 homes in the 4th quarter of 2006. Average price was $356,772, compared with $364,138 during the last quarter of 2006. Average days on market: 157. And for the year here, 400 homes sold, down from 449 in 2006; average sales price still made slight gains from $333,255 in 2006 to $339,028 in 2007. Days on market stood at 162 and there are 540 homes for sale here. January, 2008 Janet English, RE/Max By The Bay, Daphne, Alabama
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